Make your decisions as expected value calculations
This is the way I’d like to make all of my most important decisions.
“Think of every decision as a bet with a probability and a reward for being right and a probability and a penalty for being wrong. Normally a winning decision is one with a positive expected value, meaning that the reward times its probability of occurring is greater than the penalty times its probability of occurring, with the best decision being the one with the highest expected value.”
- Ray Dalio
Source:
Ray Dalio
Graph:
- 106.008 About me - Equity and Asymmetry to 116.059 Life Lessons - Make your decisions as expected value calculations
- 110.006 Startups - Industry is destiny to 116.059 Life Lessons - Make your decisions as expected value calculations
- 113.036 Statistics - Expected Value to 116.059 Life Lessons - Make your decisions as expected value calculations
- 116 Life Lessons to 116.059 Life Lessons - Make your decisions as expected value calculations
- 116.100 Life Lessons - Baseball and your career to 116.059 Life Lessons - Make your decisions as expected value calculations
- 116.101 Life Lessons - Expected value for a startup to 116.059 Life Lessons - Make your decisions as expected value calculations
- 126.001 Decision Making - Expected Value to 116.059 Life Lessons - Make your decisions as expected value calculations
- 126.008 Decision Making - Think in terms of probabilities to 116.059 Life Lessons - Make your decisions as expected value calculations
- 126.016 Decision Making - Good process + Good inputs = Great decision to 116.059 Life Lessons - Make your decisions as expected value calculations
- 126.019 Decision Making - 10 minutes, 10 months, 10 years to 116.059 Life Lessons - Make your decisions as expected value calculations
- 126.020 Decision Making - How to decide what to work on to 116.059 Life Lessons - Make your decisions as expected value calculations
- 126.023 Decision Making - Invert, always invert to 116.059 Life Lessons - Make your decisions as expected value calculations
- 128.005 Management - KPIs are the best way to have clarity around impact to 116.059 Life Lessons - Make your decisions as expected value calculations