2. Probability Function
c. interpret a cumulative distribution function;
## d. calculate and interpret probabilities for a random variable, given its cumulative distribution function;
How do you read the probability function: P(X = x)
Probability that a random variable X
(big X) takes on the value x
(little x)
What are the two key properties of a probability function?
1. 0 <= P(X=x) <= 1
- probability is always a number between 0 and 1
2. ∑P(X=x) = 1
- The sum of exhaustive probabilities must equal 1
Is the following example a valid probability function?
p(x) = x/6 for X = 1, 2, 3
for all other values p(x) = 0
Yes, this is a valid probability function because it satisfies both properties. I.e.:
1. p(1) = 1/6, p(2) = 2/6, p(3) = 3/6
- all probabilities are between 0 and 1
2. 1/6 + 2/6 + 3/6 = 6/6 = 1
- the exhaustive values sum to 1
Is the following example a valid probability function?
p(x) = (2x - 3)/16 for X = 1, 2, 3, 4
for all other values p(x) = 0
No, this is not a valid probability function because it fails the first test. I.e.:
p(1) = -1/16
- a probability can’t be negative
What is the notation for the probability density function for continuous random variables?
f(x)
The probability for a discrete set of variables will always add up to one, and can be displayed in a table or graph. How is the probability of a continuous random variable be measured and displayed?
The continuous random variable will never have an exact value b/c there are unlimited number of values in the range. Instead, you have to measure the area under the graph of a range of the values. E.g., instead of saying p(6)
you would want the percent of the area for values between P(5.99 <= X <= 6.01)
. The area under the graph will always add up to 1.
Source:
CFA
Graph:
- 115.020.40 Reading 9 - Common Probability Distributions to 115.020.40.02 Reading 9 - 2. Probability Function